Market Outlook #259 (thirteenth March 2024)
Hiya and welcome to the 259th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I can be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Cosmos, Arweave, Vulcan Solid, enqAI, Banana Gun, League of Kingdoms and BuildAI. All of those have been readers requests this week, which is nice to see! For the newer, purely on-chain performs, I’ve targeted solely on the USD pair, as there’s little or no price-history out there.
As ever, you probably have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know through electronic mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $72,931
Market Cap: $1.435trn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that worth closed final week proper on that prior all-time excessive at $69k, on rising quantity. Since, buying and selling this week has seen Bitcoin enter worth discovery, pushing into $73.7k, under which it’s at the moment sat. Momentum indicators are very a lot bullish at current, with no indicators of exhaustion on this timeframe simply but. We now additionally don’t have any resistance ranges, given worth discovery, and so the primary main stage overhead of any concern can be $100k, being arguably essentially the most important psychological quantity in its historical past alongside the 1.618 fib extension of the bear market. Little question we are going to see loads of volatility as we strategy that stage. We are able to additionally see from the weekly that worth has been in a parabolic advance for the reason that November 2022 backside, and most just lately broke and closed above channel resistance at $53k, after which it has not seemed again, steepening the curve of the advance. If this parabola holds agency into the halving, we’re taking a look at $100k by Could, as absurd as that might have sounded 6 months in the past. Such is the power of the bid. Now, if we occur to search out resistance within the subsequent few weeks and break that parabola, I might then anticipate a interval of prolonged consolidation earlier than the following leg increased begins, however let’s cross that bridge after we come to it. For now, so long as this week closes firmly by means of $69k, I feel the following month is broadly up solely (with shallow however sharp wicks to deleverage the market).
Turning to the each day, we are able to see that there’s some momentum divergence forming right here as we’ve got emerged into worth discovery, however nothing that has been confirmed but – this might very nicely simply hold grinding increased till momentum makes recent highs and invalidates any exhaustion. That stated, if we reject under $75k (the 1.618 extension of the present development) after which break and shut again inside $69k, we’ve got confluence between worth and momentum for a deeper pull-back, seemingly again in direction of $60k to retest that help stage earlier than one other breakout try. Assuming the development holds – which is my view right here – we must always see some minor rejection at $75k, a higher-low above $69k after which continuation in direction of $85k by the top of the month, invalidating the present perceived weak point in RSI. Not a lot else so as to add right here at current.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $3992.50 (0.0546 BTC)
Market Cap: $479.451bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair continues to tear increased on progressively rising quantity week-on-week, having examined $3350 as help final week and bounced all the way in which into the weekly shut simply shy of $3900. Worth is now consolidating early this week round that $3950 resistance stage, and any acceptance by means of right here opens up continuation into the final stage earlier than all-time highs, at $4385. Nothing to recommend exhaustion right here on the upper timeframes both. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see somewhat little bit of divergence on the newest push increased, however the development has been relentless and steep, providing solely sharp however temporary wicks to purchase into. We bought one other a type of a few days in the past, and except we now shut again under $3950 and switch it into resistance I’m anticipating this development to persist into $4385 earlier than the eventual breakout and worth discovery in just a few weeks time. Final cycle, it took 48 days for ETH to make a recent all-time excessive after Bitcoin, however provided that this cycle is progressing extra quickly than the final I might not be shocked to see ETH at $5k in early April.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that the pair continues to cut round between the 200wMA and 360dMA, however worth is forming higher-lows for now. So long as the 360wMA at 0.053 holds, this construction will stay intact and I might anticipate an upside breakout past 0.06 to comply with shortly. If, nonetheless, we shut under 0.053, it’s seemingly we see the underside of this cluster swept into 0.049 once more to retest that low as help, with the opportunity of a wick under that if BTC/USD goes on a tear in direction of $100k earlier than a pointy reversal. Wanting on the each day, we are able to see this construction clearly, with the pair now winding tighter with decrease highs and higher-lows, seemingly culminating in some volatility both aspect of 0.053 and 0.058 within the subsequent week or two. I do suppose the authentic breakout and continuation increased is shut – simply not sure at current whether or not we see a front-run of BTC consolidating after a run-up earlier than marking the underside, or whether or not the pair wicks under all of this help after which reverses sharply just like the January price-action (fake-out) showcased…
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $1.28 (1752 satoshis)
Market Cap: $11.907bn
Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we are able to see that the pair has bullish weekly construction following final week’s agency shut by means of $1.10, establishing the uptrend and opening up continuation into the 2023 highs at $1.56. Weekly momentum can also be wanting first rate right here for additional upside and this week has seen worth discover help at that prior resistance round $1.10 and bounce. For those who’re holding MATIC longs right here, I might look to hedge round $1.40 and reopen publicity on a clear breakout by means of $1.60 for the remainder of the cycle, as there’s plenty of resistance up right here, so we may see some volatility. However in case you’re in spot, truthfully simply sitting in your palms and letting the market drag this by means of $1.56 is your finest wager, with $2 as the first goal after that stage is cleared. I don’t suppose MATIC can be an outperformer this cycle relative to different large-caps given its efficiency final cycle, however I might not be shocked in any respect to see some minor worth discovery by means of $3 earlier than the cycle peaks. Turning to the each day, we are able to see some divergence in momentum right here, very similar to BTC and ETH, however given the proximity to main resistance right here I might be extra involved, as defined prior. If we do reject off this $1.31-1.43 vary, I might not be shocked to see $1.10 retested to mark out a higher-low within the broader development earlier than continuation by means of $1.56.
Taking a look at MATIC/BTC, we are able to see how worth swept the underside of the multi-year vary at 1717 satoshis into 1550 however closed again above the vary final week, now holding it as help. This might act as a classical spring formation, from which we’d see worth rally by means of 2100 satoshis over the following couple of weeks, turning weekly construction bullish. If as an alternative we see lacklustre price-action this week and help fails as BTC strikes increased, I might not need to personal Matic whatever the Greenback pair, given there’s zero help under and we’d be seeing no indicators of power at a key historic stage. All to play for right here…
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
UNI/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $14.08 (19,270 satoshis)
Market Cap: $10.62bn
Ideas: Starting with the weekly timeframe for UNI/USD, we are able to see that worth rallied by means of $13 into $17.50 as resistance final week however rejected, nonetheless closing firmly above that massive historic stage that preceded capitulation in 2022. This could now act as help this week, and in that case I might anticipate one other crack at $17.50 to comply with, which is barely a minor resistance stage – above that, nonetheless, we’ve got the 38.2% fib and prior resistance round $20, adopted by the 50% fib and main historic stage at $25. I might anticipate to see some type of native high between these ranges for the following pullback and consolidation earlier than continuation increased. Wanting on the each day, we are able to see some minor divergence on momentum however construction is tremendous clear right here, with resistance changing into help as we push increased. So long as we don’t see the pair shut again under $13 this week, up solely continues. If we do shut under that stage, I might look to purchase blood as near $10 because the market will give me, however I might not anticipate a lot, to be trustworthy.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we are able to see that worth has turned weekly construction bullish and is now simply consolidating round prior resistance at 17.5k satoshis. Weekly momentum is trending increased and we’re very a lot wanting prepared for extra upside within the coming weeks. If we drop into the each day for extra readability, we are able to see that the 360dMA is now performing as help, as is prior resistance at 18.9k satoshis. If this space between 17.5k and 19k satoshis can maintain, I might anticipate 35k satoshis to be the following goal because the 1.618 extension of the development. Solely under 17.5k would there be any cause to get bearish given the implications for market construction. Nothing else so as to add right here – that is very clear.
Cosmos:
ATOM/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ATOM/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $13.65 (18,710 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.318bn
Ideas: Starting with ATOM/USD, we are able to see related construction to MATIC, with a higher-low in October 2023 above the Could 2022 capitulation low resulting in a shift to bullish weekly construction and the formation of an uptrend. This development was solidified final week with a detailed by means of trendline resistance from the September 2022 highs. Weekly RSI can also be making recent highs however worth is now pushing up into the 200wMA at $14, simply shy of the multi-year resistance cluster between $14.60-16. This, very similar to MATIC, places you in a little bit of a pickle in case you’re levered closely and lengthy: there might be a violent response off this overhead resistance, so in all probability finest to hedge up right here and reopen lengthy publicity by means of $16 if that’s the way you’re enjoying this, however in case you’re holding spot then sit in your palms till finally that stage breaks and ‘straightforward mode’ begins in direction of $20 as the following resistance. Long run, I anticipate this one to push again into all-time highs, however undecided about huge intervals of worth discovery by means of $47.
Turning to ATOM/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has been in a downtrend since September 2022, most just lately breaking under help at 20k satoshis to search out help at that historic 17.8k stage, which marked the underside in 2019. We do have some indicators of development exhaustion right here as we’ve got approached this stage and subsequently the opportunity of reversal, however no precise construction but to substantiate this. If we break and shut under 17.8k, I might anticipate the all-time lows at 14.2k satoshis to be swept earlier than any significant reversal begins. Wanting on the each day for readability, I’ve marked out what we may even see if this 17.8k stage is to carry, which is a pointy sweep by means of the extent adopted by a reclaim and rally by means of 20.4k satoshis into 22.7k satoshis, then forming a higher-low again above that 20.4k satoshi space – if we see this, I’m on board for ATOM outperformance going ahead. Till then, not one I’m eager to carry with so many higher alternatives current.
Arweave:
AR/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
AR/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $37.97 (52,140 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.491bn
Ideas: If we glance firstly at AR/USD, we are able to see that worth has been on a tear the previous few weeks, with final week bouncing off resistance turned help at $23 and pushing up so far as the 50% fib retracement of the bear market at $48 earlier than closing the week out at $41. Now we have no indicators of exhaustion on the weekly and loads of quantity on this most up-to-date push increased, however I might not be shocked to see some consolidation right here above $34 and under $44 the remainder of this week. As quickly as we shut above $44 on the weekly, I feel we’re gonna see acceleration in direction of $72 as the following main resistance stage earlier than recent all-time highs later this 12 months. Dropping into the each day, very similar to others cash we are able to see some exhaustion on the final push increased however nothing structurally to point a lot decrease costs are inbound . Quite, I anticipate a higher-low to kind above prior resistance at $34. If that stage does fail, I feel we commerce again in direction of $27.50, the place there’s loads of demand. To the upside, simply getting a clear break by means of final week’s highs will open up important upside, as apart from the 61.8% fib at $59, there actually isn’t a lot overhead resistance earlier than $72.
Turning to AR/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and worth has just lately examined the 38.2% fib of the bar market at 68k satoshis, earlier than rejecting and now consolidating between reclaimed help at 50k and resistance round 65k satoshis. Once more, so long as that 50k stage now holds as help, I feel we simply proceed to push increased within the subsequent week or two in direction of trendline resistance from the all-time highs and the 50% fib at 85.6k satoshis. Wanting on the each day, the image is basically the identical because it was for the Greenback pair, with some momentum divergence right here however construction nonetheless wanting stable for a higher-low above that 44-50k satoshi vary. Until we see 37.8k fail, each day construction remains to be bullish and the development is unbroken, so no cause to overcomplicate this to be trustworthy…
Vulcan Solid:
PYR/USD
Every day:
PYR/BTC
Every day:
Worth: $9,47 (13,001 satoshis)
Market Cap: $226.443mn
Ideas: I’ll focus solely right here on the Greenback pair for Vulcan Solid.
Taking a look at PYR/USD, we are able to see that the pair emerged from a multi-year vary in November 2023, turning vary resistance into help at $5.50. Worth then rallied into $9.10, discovered resistance and retraced, retesting that vary resistance and forming a low above the 200dMA. Since, worth has continued the development increased, rallying by means of $9.10 final week into the 23.6% fib of the bear market round prior help at $10.78, the place we’ve got discovered some resistance. I might anticipate to see some consolidation right here however for a higher-low to kind above $8, resulting in a breakout by means of $10.78, with $16 as the following goal past that. I’m nonetheless holding my spot bag from that vary and I’m in search of the 38.2% fib to be tagged at $18.60 earlier than I start contemplating promoting partials and scaling out, with a view to carry some for worth discovery past $51 in a full-blown gaming mania in some unspecified time in the future on this cycle. In case you are on the sidelines seeking to get in, I might be contemplating something near $8 as a great entry with invalidation at $5.50 and that $18 space as a primary goal.
enqAI:
ENQAI/USD
Every day:
Worth: $0.099 (136 satoshis)
Market Cap: $95.036mn
Ideas: As enqAI has solely been buying and selling for just a few months, we are going to look solely on the Greenback pair right here.
Taking a look at ENQAI/USD, we are able to see that worth initially fashioned resistance at $0.041 earlier than retracing into an all-time low at $0.0068 shortly after buying and selling started. This marked out the underside, from which the pair then consolidated for a month between a higher-low at $0.0097 and resistance at $0.023. This vary gave manner in February, starting ENQAI’s first bull cycle, with worth then making recent highs by means of $0.041 and now grinding increased inside a channel, forming an all-time excessive every week in the past round $0.15. Now we have since retraced to the underside of the channel and prior resistance at $0.084, performing as help. That is the extent bulls need to see maintain, as a breakdown under this stage and thru the underside of the channel would open up the probability of a deeper retracement again in direction of that $0.041 stage to retest it as help earlier than continuation increased can start. If this space does maintain, nonetheless, we’re taking a look at $0.22 as the following main goal because the 1.618 extension of the development, someday late in March. If that is vertical accumulation earlier than a parabola/blow-off high begins, we must always see the highest of the channel give manner and switch into help, resulting in sharper rallies increased from there. On the finish of the day, we’re nonetheless pretty early within the AI crypto cycle and it’s seemingly these valuations grow to be way more ridiculous earlier than the cycle peaks, so holding this while its in worth discovery and simply sitting in your palms is smart to me.
Banana Gun:
BANANA/USD
Every day:
Worth: $35.99 (49,410 satoshis)
Market Cap: $86.186mnn
Ideas: Once more, as Banana Gun has solely been buying and selling for just a few months, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at BANANA/USD, we are able to see that early price-action in September noticed worth rally off help at $5.38 into resistance at $14, earlier than retracing to kind a recent all-time low at $5 after which reclaiming $5.38 as help. Subsequently, the pair started its first bull cycle and rallied by means of $14 into $18.77 in December, earlier than retracing right into a higher-low at $8.18 in January. Now we have since been on a constant development increased, with a parabolic advance at the moment in play. Worth rallied into all-time highs a few days in the past at $39 and has been grinding increased inside a channel (just like ENQAI) since mid-February. I might anticipate to see this development persist right here and the rallies get steeper, so long as we don’t break and shut under $30. If that stage holds, I feel we see continuation into $48 later this month, adopted by some type of blow-off high / parabola break someday in April, earlier than a interval of consolidation and correction earlier than what’s going to seemingly be the ‘actual’ blow-off high at any time when BTC/USD has marked a high for this cycle. The choice situation is that it simply continues to cling to this parabola and grind increased by means of April above $80 and past, however I’m leaning much less in direction of this view at current.
League of Kingdoms:
LOKA/USD
Every day:
LOKA/BTC
Every day:
Worth: $0.424 (583 satoshis)
Market Cap: $48.627mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LOKA look very related, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at LOKA/USD, we are able to see that the mission launched throughout the bear market and suffered a 97% drawdown from the $5.50 all-time excessive in April 2022, falling all the way in which into $0.17 in September 2023, which marked out the underside. Worth then reclaimed help at $0.19 and started turning each day construction bullish, rallying for months till it hit the 360dMA at $0.34 and rejected twice, retracing off that stage into the 200dMA to kind a higher-low above $0.19 in February. From there, the pair has continued to rally, breaking by means of the 360dMA and turning it into help for the primary time in its historical past. Now we have pushed from that stage into prior help at $0.45, under which we at the moment are consolidating. I might anticipate to see the formation of a higher-low above $0.34 now, seemingly nearer to $0.38, and worth to interrupt by means of $0.45 within the subsequent week or two, main an enormous vary of upside to be captured earlier than the following main resistance. I can be seeking to purchase acceptance above $0.45 with a view to carry into the $1.46 stage – the 23.6% fib of the bear market and prior help turned resistance.
BuildAI:
BUILD/USD
4H:
Worth: $0.51 (686 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.298mn
Ideas: As BuildAI has solely been buying and selling for just a few weeks, I’ve opted for the 4H chart right here of the Greenback pair for evaluation, given how little price-history is on the market.
Taking a look at BUILD/USD, we are able to see related price-action to early ENQAI, with a rally into resistance at $0.45, adopted by the primary correction and consolidation above help at $0.15 (a 66% drawdown) after which the start of a bull cycle earlier this month off that help stage. Worth rallied by means of resistance at $0.31, turning it into help, then cleared $0.45 making recent all-time highs. Since, we’ve got continued to push increased into $0.85 because the all-time excessive, however there are some indicators of exhaustion right here at current. It is very important be aware of the truth that this can be a 4H chart, nonetheless, so exhaustion is anticipated after a few weeks of rallying increased. Now we have reclaimed resistance at $0.71 forming that lower-high, however at the moment worth is holding above prior highs turned help at $0.45. This might very nicely mark the underside right here as this cluster of help has been swept right into a key stage and worth has discovered demand, and in that case we must always see a higher-low kind above $0.50 this week resulting in continuation by means of $0.85 into worth discovery, with $1.25 as a goal past that. If, nonetheless, we want a bigger correction right here, $0.62 ought to now act as reclaimed resistance, forming one other decrease excessive, and worth ought to break under $0.45 from there, opening up a transfer into the earlier mid-range at $0.31 (which can also be the 78.6% fib retracement of this whole rally *and* across the similar drawdown because the earlier correction). If we get near $0.31, that might be a great entry for anybody seeking to maintain this for a cycle.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
