Market Outlook #258 (third March 2024)
Whats up and welcome to the 258th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I can be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Filecoin, ImmutableX, Beam, Ethereum Identify Service and Myro. I can be publishing an extended Outlook subsequent week with a couple of extra smallcaps in fascinating sectors, however in case you have any requests please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Month-to-month:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $62,624
Market Cap: $1.231trn
Ideas: Starting with the Month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we will see that February was one of many strongest months in historical past for Bitcoin, rallying off the month-to-month open all the best way into the month-to-month shut at ~$61,200. This did happen on barely much less quantity than January, however the sheer energy of the price-action right here is obvious, with the pair closing via the 78.6% fib of the bear market at $57.6k and above $59k resistance, having marginally rejected on the final stage of resistance under all-time highs at $64,900. Worth is at the moment holding to a steep parabolic advance, as proven by the curve of the rally so far, and will this advance maintain into March we must always see continuation via all-time highs, with $100k as the apparent main stage overhead to search out vital resistance, with it being each a psychological stage and the 1.618 extension of the bear market. There’s additionally loads of room for upside relative to prior cycles on momentum indicators, which look primed for continuation.
If we take a look at the weekly chart, we will see how this previous week rallied off that weekly open round $52.1k, having consolidated in a really tight vary the week prior, pushing via $59.2k into $64.1k and now set to shut round $62.6k. All of this occurred on big quantity on the week, persevering with the sample of progress following the consolidation week. Weekly RSI is pushing into new highs, indicating rampant momentum right here, and we now have solely $64,900 standing in the best way of recent highs past $69.2k. The parabola has additionally been depicted right here, nevertheless, and we do have additional room to consolidate following this growth if required while nonetheless holding the parabolic advance. Now, what’s form of wild is that this tempo of advance is indicative of costs near $100k as early as this summer season. What we may even see happen – and what could be extra typical of a 4-year cycle – could be a break of the parabola shortly following new all-time highs, consolidation for a interval after which a brand new parabolic advance into the market cycle peak. If, nevertheless, we merely maintain to this curve and rally into and past the summer season, it’s possible we see a cyclical high inside 2024. Waiting for subsequent week, I feel it’s extremely possible if ETF inflows persist we see this resistance damaged and value push into that all-time excessive, the place I’d anticipate to see numerous volatility, notably given the quantity of leverage within the markets at current.
Turning lastly to the day by day, we will see that value has been consolidating in tightening day by day ranges for the previous 4 days following the break and shut via $59.2k. On condition that momentum is exhibiting no indicators of exhaustion on any timeframe now we have checked out, one is inclined to anticipate upside decision to this consolidation. Nevertheless, as we do have *loads* of leverage right here, I’d not be stunned to see price-action just like final week the place we take out native lows into assist at $59.2k earlier than reversing sharply larger via $65k. Wild week forward…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $3464.82 (0.05531 BTC)
Market Cap: $416.329bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has continued to rally larger, constructing on the previous three weeks of comparable price-action, rallying off that weekly open into the weekly shut right here at $3460, shy of prior assist at $3580 – the extent now we have marked out as a goal for a swing place for a while now. Taking a look at this, there are not any clear causes to anticipate the rally to stop right here, with momentum in full assist of bulls and no indicators of rejection but. That stated, I’ve now exited levered longs, holding solely spot ETH as we go into subsequent week – no must be a hero up right here, for my part. If we do reject $3580. I’d anticipate a higher-low to kind over the subsequent couple of weeks above $2800 and value to proceed from there into $3950. Nevertheless, if we don’t reject subsequent week, I feel it’s possible this simply continues to tear into that $3950 stage shortly thereafter, with solely $4385 then holding it down earlier than recent all-time highs. It’s possible that this final transfer upwards into all-time highs will happen when BTC/USD has damaged all-time highs and consolidated, permitting ETH/BTC to proceed to maneuver larger.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that regardless of the profitable breakout past long-term trendline resistance, this previous week of price-action in BTC/USD has weighed closely, inflicting the pair to retrace the rally all the best way again under the trendline, under the 200wMA, and again into assist at 0.0551. This really is chop metropolis right here, however we do have some indicators of energy in momentum and construction right here, so long as this now holds above 0.051; if BTC/USD makes a brand new all-time excessive subsequent week and ETH/BTC doesn’t make a lower-low under 0.051, that might be a *big* signal of energy, for my part. Trying briefly on the day by day, we will see how the 360dMA capped the final rally, however day by day construction is wanting respectable right here as we kind a higher-low above that 0.0533 stage. Truthfully, till we see BTC break all-time highs, it’s exhausting to have a learn on this on the day by day timeframe in any respect – I simply need to see 0.051 maintain on that all-time excessive break to make sure on betting on ETH energy from there.
Filecoin:
FIL/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
FIL/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $10.65 (16,871 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.505bn
Ideas: If we start by FIL/USD, we will see from the weekly that value turned weekly construction bullish on the transfer via $6.74 into $8.13, retraced to search out assist above $4.63 and has since rallied on rising quantity into $11.25 this previous week, confirming the uptrend. Momentum additionally appears to be like robust right here, and if the pair can maintain above $8.13 subsequent week I’d anticipate to see value commerce via $11.25 in the direction of the subsequent main resistance at $17. Truthfully although, we’re barely leaving disbelief for this market cycle as value breaks via $11.25, with the 23.6% fib of the bear market all the best way up close to $57. If you’re a spot holder from the lows, I’d simply sit comfortably and await on the very least a 200wMA retest at $26, with main resistance above that at $30, earlier than trying to exit something in any respect. If we drop into the day by day, we will additionally see how the confluence of the 200dMA and 360dMA acted as assist, with the previous now crossing above the latter (an indication of an rising bull marketplace for alts). From there, value rallied into recent yearly highs, with day by day construction firmly bullish. There are not any indicators of exhaustion right here both, so any pull-backs in the direction of $8.80 could be shopping for alternatives, in my view, with invalidation under $6.74.
Turning to FIL/BTC, on the weekly we will see that the pair continues to be very a lot at cycle lows, having solely simply bounced off of all-time lows at 10.6k satoshis, via 14.2k as reclaimed assist into 18.5k satoshis this previous week, which is prior assist turned resistance. We have now had diminishing volatility into this assist cluster for months, and a detailed via 18.5k would flip weekly construction bullish right here. If we see that, I feel it’s secure to say the pair is rising from a bear market right into a bull market and we will anticipate sustained outperformance from there. In that situation I feel we imply revert in the direction of that 200wMA at 80k satoshis, slightly below the 23.6% fib, within the coming months. If we briefly drop into the day by day, we will additionally see how the 200dMA is now appearing as resistance and the 360dMA, which capped rallies lately, has been breached and is now appearing as assist additionally, offering confluence for this bottoming formation. Not a lot else so as to add right here for now however this appears to be like strong for energy within the subsequent few weeks.
ImmutableX:
IMX/USD
Day by day:
IMX/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $3.26 (5211 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.541bn
Ideas: As IMX has solely been buying and selling for a few years, each pairs look just about an identical right here, so let’s give attention to the greenback pair.
Taking a look at IMX/USD, we will see that following a higher-low formation above assist at $1.76, value continued the uptrend, rallying via the $2.61 excessive in February into $3.70, the place it discovered resistance proper across the 50% fib of the bear market and simply shy of the 100% fib extension of the present uptrend. We have now since seen value consolidate while momentum indicators reset, with prior resistance at $2.87 now appearing as assist. From right here, I’m anticipating one other leg larger to unfold, resulting in a retest of main resistance at $4.50 – across the 61.8% fib of the bear market, together with the final stage of horizontal resistance. That’s the place I’m trying to unload half of my spot bag of IMX from the lows – with a view to holding the remainder for value discovery via $7, as any shut via $4.50 has no resistance into that all-time excessive stage… it’s been experience up to now.
Beam:
BEAM/USD
Day by day:
BEAM/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.0341 (54 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.794bn
Ideas: Once more, I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair for Beam, because it has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months.
Taking a look at BEAM/USD, we will see that value emerged from the prior consolidation vary, flipped that prior all-time excessive at assist at $0.0275 and has been slowly grinding up and consolidating since, pushing into a brand new excessive at $0.038 however discovering a lot resistance at $0.0366. For the perfect a part of the previous month, prior resistance at $0.0307 has acted as assist on this vary and now we have had bearish divergence. There are at the moment no indicators that the bearish divergence will play out, however the first signal could be a detailed via $0.0307, turning that stage into reclaimed resistance, from which level I’d anticipate to see $0.0275 swept earlier than a brand new low types and value resumes the uptrend. If, nevertheless, value merely pushes via $0.037 within the coming days and finds assist above that all-time excessive, making higher-highs on RSI, we invalidate this divergence, and that’s often a really robust sign for one more leg larger. In that situation, I’m $0.051 as a serious goal, as it’s the confluence of the 200% extension of the prior consolidation and the 300% extension of the uptrend. Longer-term, I’m searching for costs effectively past $0.051, however we’ll then be entering into the latter levels of the market cycle: my expectations are a $10bn+ FDV for Beam when all is alleged and executed, so we’ve nonetheless received 5-6x in it no less than if my expectations play out.
Ethereum Identify Service:
ENS/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ENS/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $22.27 (35,471 satoshis)
Market Cap: $685.627mn
Ideas: Starting with ENS/USD, on the weekly we will see that value has been consolidating for many of this yr following that top quantity rally via a number of key resistance ranges. We hit $27.43 off that rally and have since been capped by $24.30 as resistance, discovering assist above $14.55. The previous few weeks have been spent proper up close to that vary resistance, with this week seeing a profitable retest of prior resistance turned assist at $18.50. If we drop into the day by day for extra readability, we will see how momentum has fully reset however is holding above that fifty mark as higher-lows kind on the worth chart, which is promising for bulls. We have now native trendline resistance capping the highs, however I’m trying to open a levered lengthy on a detailed above $24.30, turning that stage and the trendline into assist, as I anticipate we’ll start the subsequent leg larger into the $38-41 vary from there. I’m additionally nonetheless holding my full spot place from $8.50ish, which I’m not trying to promote any time quickly, with a view to carry for the 50% fib of the bear market round $85-90. For those who’re on the sidelines, this subsequent break and shut via resistance is strictly what you need to pounce on when it comes…
Turning to ENS/BTC, we will see that the pair retraced a lot of the single-week rally over the previous couple of months, closing via assist turned resistance at 43,300 satoshis this week, as value offered off into reclaimed assist above 32k. I’m anticipating a higher-low to kind above the 30k area in March, from which we see continuation of the bull cycle for ENS via 65k satoshis into the October 2022 Excessive round 108k satoshis – the 38.2% fib of the bear market. Above that stage, we enter the endgame and method the latter levels of the market cycle, however, if we drop into the day by day, we will see that value is discovering assist above each the 200dMA and 360dMA, which had acted as resistance prior – and in case you have but to purchase spot ENS and need to hitch your wagon to the Vitalik-endorsed Specific, someplace within the the 30-32k satoshi area would make excellent sense, particularly if BTC blasts via all-time highs within the near-term and gives one other dump on the ENS/BTC pair into assist. So long as 26k satoshis doesn’t give method, I feel this nonetheless appears to be like strong.
Myro:
MYRO/USD
Day by day:
MYRO/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.158 (255 satoshis)
Market Cap: $157.943mn
Ideas: As Myro has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at MYRO/USD, we will see that value consolidated after that all-time excessive at $0.26, retracing quickly into $0.041 as assist firstly of February. From there, value shaped a multi-week vary capped by prior assist at $0.11, forming a higher-low above $0.052 in mid-February earlier than rallying via that $0.11 stage a few days in the past, as memecoin mania started to kick into gear. That stage is now appearing as assist, and value is sat simply shy of prior resistance at $0.176. I’m anticipating to see continuation via this stage into the prior all-time excessive within the subsequent couple of weeks, main to cost discovery and continuation of the broader uptrend. The subsequent goal via $0.26 could be $0.44 because the 1.618 extension of the development, adopted by $0.53. Little else so as to add right here.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
