It is a long-winded means of claiming the market isn’t “unsuitable.” It merely displays all obtainable info. In case you accurately disagree with the market, you could be rewarded for that perception, by betting your self. U.S. customers have alternate options to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them below a regulatory settlement. In case you imagine the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the worth of the Trump contract, and b) is unsuitable, you may merely wager in opposition to her or him or them by going lengthy on Harris. Despite the fact that it’s not risk-free – Harris nonetheless must win to your wager to repay – in the event you thought her “actual” odds had been 55%, you’d be shopping for one thing value 55 cents for 40 cents at present. Even in the event you won’t be prepared to do this, different market members will. So if the Polymarket whale is certainly misinformed, now that we all know there’s a (probably misinformed) whale, you’d anticipate the chances to say no as merchants incorporate this new info. Until after all, the prediction markets are typically dependable and the whale hasn’t influenced them a lot.
